Predicting EVE Online item sales (BVM Data Science Cup 2017)

This year, the BVM (German professional association for market and social researchers), hosted their first Data Science Cup. There were four tasks involving the prediction of sales data for the online sci-fi game “EVE Online”.

It was my first year working in market research and applying statistics and machine learning algorithms in a real-world context. So, naturally there is much room for improvements to my solution, but I ranked 3rd out of five, so I’m right in the middle. I would do many things differently today, but that’s how it’s supposed to be, right? For example, I would go through with a multilevel model, since the data has a natural hierarchy, that should be incorporated into the analysis.

I have uploaded my solution to a GitHub repository, so you might learn from my mistakes. In the README I have also included some of my reasoning and some technical details. But beware, the code is messy and badly documented – proceed with caution.

 

Vagrant VM for starting a Rails project

This is something off-topic for this blog, but after spending several hours setting up an environment for developing and testing a Ruby on Rails project, I’d like to share my solution.

I recently had an idea for a small web-project, for that I’d like to use Ruby on Rails. From previous attempts of using Rails, I knew that Ruby and Rails are updated regularly and that the setup of the environment might be tricky. And using my Mac not only for web-development, I did not want to have many versions of Ruby, Python, whatnot, in parallel on it. And as I read about Vagrant some weeks ago, I wanted to give it a try.

It took quite some time to set-up the provisioning script properly. I tried using Chef, but it made things more complex and I appreciated the simplicity of a shell script. Continue reading “Vagrant VM for starting a Rails project”

Re: Blog

Okay, schon wieder ein Blog. Ja, ich habe in den letzten Jahren immer wieder neue Blogs aufgemacht. Und ja, die haben selten länger als ein Jahr gehalten. Trotzdem habe ich noch mal einen neuen Anlauf gestartet.

Und wieso? Seit Anfang Oktober arbeite und promoviere ich in der Abteilung Methodenlehre, Diagnostik und Evaluation an der Uni Bonn. Das führt dazu, dass ich häufiger mal interessante Paper lese und da irgendwie meinen Senf zu abgeben möchte. In dieser Hinsicht richtet sich der Blog also an Interessierte jeglicher Herkunft und Fachrichtung.

Damit das alles aber nicht zu langweilig wird, könnten hier – bitte nicht erschrecken – auch mal Fotos oder ähnliches auftauchen. Und um die Komplexität Internationalität zu steigern, werden einige Posts sicherlich auch mal auf Englisch kommen.

Keine Ahnung, ob das jetzt länger als ein Jahr klappt, aber ich dachte mir: Ich versuch’s einfach mal wieder.