In February and March this year, I stayed at the Eindhoven Technical University in the amazing group with Daniël Lakens, Anne Scheel and Peder Isager, who are actively researching questions of replicability in psychological science. Over the two months I have learned a lot, exchanged some great ideas with the three of them – and was able to work together with Daniël on a small overview article.
Recently, I had the opportunity to give a lecture on Bayesian statistics to a semester of Psychology Master students at the University of Bonn. The slides, which are in German, I’d like to share here for interested readers.
After I calculated the probabilities of Germany dropping out of the world cup two years ago, I always wanted to do some Bayesian modeling for the Bundesliga or the Euro Cup that started yesterday. Unfortunately, I never came to it. But Andrew Gelman posted some model by Leonardo Egidi today on his blog:
Leonardo Egidi writes:
Inspired by your world cup model I fitted in Stan a model for the Euro Cup which start today, with two Poisson distributions for the goals scored at every match by the two teams (perfect prediction for the first match!).
The available PDF contains the results and the description for the model. Really interesting and already a perfectly predicted first match! But the model will not fit very well at the semi-finals… Germany losing to Italy? Again? Can’t be!